As trade tensions between the United States and China intensify once again, many observers assume that sweeping tariffs and economic pressure will primarily weaken China. From my vantage point—working closely with Chinese companies and global capital markets—the greater long-term risk may lie closer to home.

Proposed tariffs as high as 145% on Chinese goods, and even higher on specific sectors, will undoubtedly impose short-term pain on China’s export economy. Yet China has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to absorb economic shocks, from prolonged pandemic lockdowns to deep real-estate and technology slowdowns. In contrast, the United States may be underestimating how vulnerable its own economic foundations are to abrupt policy shifts.

From Beijing’s perspective, the current moment is not merely about trade—it is about a broader contest over the economic and institutional leadership of the 21st century. Seen through that lens, the first hundred days of the Trump administration risk advancing several outcomes that inadvertently strengthen China’s strategic position.

Undermining America’s Universities

America’s research universities are among its greatest competitive advantages. They anchor innovation in artificial intelligence, biotechnology, advanced materials, and quantum computing, while attracting top talent from around the world. Recent actions that restrict academic independence, reduce funding, and create uncertainty for foreign students and faculty threaten this ecosystem.

As scholars and researchers seek more stable environments abroad, China and other countries are poised to benefit from an outflow of talent that once flowed overwhelmingly into the United States. Weakening higher education weakens the long-term engine of American innovation.

Ceding Influence in the Global South

Demographics present a shared challenge for China, the U.S., and Europe: declining fertility rates and aging populations. Economic growth in the coming decades will depend heavily on engagement with the Global South—including Southeast Asia, India, Africa, and Latin America.

Yet recent trade and foreign-policy signals suggest a U.S. retreat from these regions, while China continues to expand its footprint through infrastructure investment, trade agreements, and the Belt and Road Initiative. As Washington steps back, Beijing is stepping forward—building economic relationships that may shape global growth patterns for decades.

Destabilizing the Dollar’s Privilege

For more than 75 years, the U.S. dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency has conferred enormous advantages, allowing the United States to finance deficits at lower cost and absorb global shocks. Aggressive protectionism and reduced global trade engagement risk undermining that privilege.

If global commerce increasingly bypasses U.S. markets, the demand for dollars diminishes. Rising Treasury yields already signal stress, and large-scale refinancing needs could magnify the consequences. While China has long aspired to a more multipolar currency system, U.S. disengagement may accelerate that shift faster than Beijing ever could on its own.

Draining Human Capital

America’s historic strength has been its ability to attract ambitious, creative individuals from across the globe and integrate them into a uniquely dynamic economic system. Immigrants and foreign-born Americans account for a disproportionate share of advanced degrees, technology startups, and scientific breakthroughs.

Policies that revoke visas, restrict student mobility, or inject uncertainty into immigration pathways send a clear signal to global talent: build your future elsewhere. At the same time, China is actively courting scientists, engineers, and entrepreneurs—many of whom once viewed the U.S. as their first choice.

A Strategic Inflection Point

It is striking how quickly policy choices can reshape long-term competitive dynamics. In just one hundred days, the cumulative effect of tariffs, academic pressure, global disengagement, and immigration restrictions risks advancing the strategic objectives of America’s primary rival.

This is not an argument for underestimating China, nor for abandoning legitimate concerns around trade fairness or national security. It is, however, a reminder that America’s greatest strengths—open markets, open minds, and open institutions—have historically been its most powerful advantages.

Preserving those strengths may matter far more to the future balance of global economic leadership than any tariff schedule ever could.